CELPIP Speaking Task 4 asks you to make predictions about a future situation based on the information provided. Accurate modal usage and evidence-linking are the two markers of a CLB 9 response.
Examples
Weak
Avoid"I think maybe things will get better or maybe they will get worse. It is hard to say."
Stronger
Better"Based on the trend shown, enrollment is likely to increase by approximately 15% over the next three years, primarily because the new transit line will reduce commute time for students from the eastern suburbs."
How It Works
Evidence-based prediction
Link your prediction explicitly to the data or scenario given
"Given the steady rise in applicants since 2022, demand will likely exceed capacity within two years."
Graded certainty
Use "will", "is likely to", "may", "could" to show confidence level
"Sales will increase" (certain); "Sales are likely to increase" (probable); "Sales may increase" (possible)
Quantity or timeframe
Add a specific number or timeframe to anchor the prediction
"Ridership is expected to rise by 20% within 18 months of the station opening."
Consequence chain
Extend the prediction with a second-order consequence
"As demand increases, prices will rise, which may reduce affordability for first-time buyers."
Common Mistakes
Prediction without evidence
AvoidI think the company will do well in the future.
BetterGiven the 40% year-over-year growth in online sales, the company is likely to expand its warehouse capacity within 12 months.
Fix: Every prediction should name the evidence that supports it.
Flat certainty
AvoidEverything will definitely be fine.
BetterRevenue will probably recover by Q3, assuming the supply chain disruptions resolve as expected.
Fix: Absolute certainty about future events reduces credibility. Use "probably", "likely", "is expected to".
No timeframe
AvoidThe situation will improve.
BetterThe situation is expected to stabilise within six months as the new policy takes effect.
Fix: Add a timeframe ("within six months", "by 2028") to make the prediction specific and evaluable.
Practice Lab
Self-mark each task. Retry until every answer is correct.
Score: 0/3
1. Quick pick
Which option best demonstrates this skill?
2. Build it
Put the sentence in the correct order.
Tap a chunk to move it between the bank and answer area.
3. Sort it
Sort each item into the correct category.
Link your prediction explicitly to evidence in the scenario.
Make a prediction with no reference to the given information.
Use "is likely to" or "is expected to" rather than a flat "will".
Say "maybe it will get better" without a timeframe or evidence.
Why It Matters
CELPIP Speaking Task 4 tests your ability to interpret a situation and project it forward. The examiner is looking for evidence-based reasoning, appropriate modal usage, and specificity. Candidates who say "I think things will improve" without evidence or a timeframe score CLB 7 on Task Fulfilment. Adding one evidence link, one graded modal, and one timeframe converts a vague prediction into a CLB 9 response.
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